FLUPOCALYPSE: This Blew Up Fast

April 26th, 2009 | researchmaterial

Reuters:

Tests have confirmed that eight New York City schoolchildren had a type A influenza virus, likely swine flu, city Health Commissioner Dr. Thomas Frieden said on Saturday.

BBC:

A new flu virus suspected of killing at least 60 people in Mexico has the potential to become a pandemic, the World Health Organization’s chief says.

On the ground:

I work as a resident doctor in one of the biggest hospitals in Mexico City and sadly, the situation is far from ’under control’… two of my partners who worked in this hospital (interns) were killed by this new virus in less than six days even though they were vaccinated as all of us were. The official number of deaths is 20, nevertheless, the true number of victims are more than 200…

16 Responses to “FLUPOCALYPSE: This Blew Up Fast”

  1. …while everyone was looking at birds…

  2. Additionally, the WHO has us currently at Level 3: “a new influenza virus subtype is causing disease in humans, but is not yet spreading efficiently and sustainably among humans.”

    http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html

  3. SANS has a list of resources regarding the issue for anyone involved in disaster recovery planning: http://www.sans.edu/resources/leadershiplab/pandemic_watch2009.php

    Will have to see how bad this gets. I for one am taking two weeks of vacation to see how this settles out.

  4. So why will I likely dream about “The Stand” and wonder if this is Chapter 1?

  5. Maybe I’m misunderstanding something about influenza etym/epidemiology, but at least one article I’ve read has claimed that the flu has strains of three different lines — pig, bird and something else. So why is the media just calling it a strain of swine flu?

    Either way yeah, came from nowhere and blew up quick. Two days ago nothing, now from Cuidad de Mexico to New York. Weird.

  6. Awesome, I had “killed by swine flu” in my office How Will We All Die pool.

  7. [...] in public places. On the brighter side, all of this comotion makes for good background. Writer Warren Ellis blogs about the news and files it under [...]

  8. Queens is NYC’s way-diverse borough. Might have been kids visiting family south of the border during spring break.

    I’m glad to hear that they’re feeling better. This may be a fast-moving wide-spread but not killer flu. Fingers crossed.

    Wash your hands. Cover your mouth. Don’t lick faucets.

  9. It’s in NZ now, too.

  10. http://www.theage.com.au/world/new-zealand-investigates-possible-swine-flu-cases-20090426-aj7y.html

  11. The alleged case of a flight attendant arriving in the UK from Mexico with it that was all over the UK papers this morning (in that cheery ‘not overreacting at all’ way of the UK press) was apparently a false alarm.

  12. I would put money that this flu has been around at least since January. I’ve had bad flus in my life, but the one I had earlier this year really tried to *kill* me. It wasn’t the symptoms of flu — aches, fever — that were dramatic. It was the *respiratory effects*. I would be gasping for air like a fish out of water at night, unable to fill more than a small fraction of my lungs. Because I’m a stubborn SOB, I didn’t go to the ER for several days. Fever and aches mostly gone, so they chalked it up to extreme bronchitis and gave me an antibiotic (the in-ER steroids and therapy they gave me were ineffective). And because they thought it was a “normal” flu, no swabs for culturing. Seriously, if you contract this thing, don’t wait for treatment. It is lethal.

  13. I maintain that this flue strain is far too virulent and kills far to quickly for the strain to survive for long, but, since I live in San Antonio , Texas, I maintain this while curled up under my desk, sobbing gently.

    And I can see the media is quickly blowing this one story out of proportion, so, In the event of some sort of mass hysteria, may we meet again, on the right hand of the lord.

    Courage

  14. Thousands of churches canceled their masses yesterday, here in México, something that has not happened since the Cristero War in the 1920’s.
    They were broadcasting them on the radio, and if you really wanted to eat the body of christ nevertheless, I heard there was a 10 minute ceremony straight to business.

  15. This strain of influenza does appear to have a very short infection-to-handicap timetable, but the simple fact that it appears to be easily transmitted is the thing to worry about.

    If it is a serious enough bug to lay people out for days at a time, and require urgent medical care for those who are at risk for further complications, healthcare systems across the globe may be quickly flooded with patients.

    Now I’m glad I don’t over-sanitize, because my immune system is doing pretty good these days!

  16. Nico Granada made a great observation above. On the US side, preparedness since 9-11 and the anthrax reports seems to have become one more bold pretense to action with poor follow through. At analystblues.com there’s a great bluepaper on the subject.


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Coilhouse is Hiring! Apply Here.

Coilhouse - 08 Feb 10

Back around the time of Issue 03, we launched the Small Business Advertising Program to create affordable ad space for indie companies in the print version of Coilhouse. By the time Issue 04 rolled around, the number of advertisers had grown significantly – by this time, we had record labels, jewelry and clothing designers, sculptors, other magazines, web hosts, toy makers and graphic designers advertising in our pages. Click here to see them all. With editorial duties taking up more and more of our time as the weeks go by, the moment has come for us to seek help with the advertising side of running the magazine. We’re looking to hire an Ad Manager for our Small Business Advertising Program, starting with Coilhouse Magazine #05… and possibly subsequent issues.

Full details after the jump!


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blissblog - 08 Feb 10

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blissblog - 08 Feb 10

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blissblog - 08 Feb 10

State of South Carolina Secretary of State Subversive Agent Form

jwz - 08 Feb 10

Check the appropriate box. Do you or your organization directly or indirectly advocate, advise, teach or practice the duty or necessity of controlling, seizing or overthrowing the government of the United States, the state of South Carolina or any political division thereof?
[ ] YES [ ] NO

If yes, please outline the fundamental beliefs. If applicable, attach a copy of the bylaws or minutes of meetings from the last year.

"Inflection Points" Presentation

Open The Future - 08 Feb 10

For those folks who are interested, here's the Slideshare version of the presentation I gave last week at the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute annual meeting. I was asked to talk about foresight thinking, as the event theme was "The Big One of 2056: What Went Right?" a look at a fictional 7.8 quake in the SF region that was handled as well as they could imagine possible.

My goal was to offer a bit of reassurance to the audience that there is some real utility to thinking about the future, and to spell out (in a cursory way) the kinds of big picture issues they should keep in mind while looking ahead forty-six years.

By and large, it was a successful talk. The post-talk questions were engaged, with little push-back, and I'm told that the overall response from the audience was quite positive.

The talk was video recorded, and I'm told will eventually be available to the public. I'll link when that happens.

CAN GIFTING ECONOMIES SCALE?

John Robb - 08 Feb 10

A gifting economy is different from a barter or market economy in that valuable items are given away to those that need them, without any quid pro quo, exchange, or payment.  Gifting economics (lots of great papers on this topic) were/are the economic heartbeat of hunter-gatherer tribal cultures, the social organization where we spent 99% of our time as homo sapiens sapiens.  Barter was, in contrast, a mechanism for economic interactions between tribes.  

This gifting economic system wasn't based on pure altruism.  It did have an enforcement mechanism to ensure compliance with the system over the longer term.  On the positive side, there was an intangible increase in the social status (using personal or societal metrics) of a tribal member that gifted an item.  On the negative, a failure to offer hospitality or gifts to those in need was considered a mortal slight that could incite violence or expulsion from the tribe.

There were also a considerable number of drivers for gifting at the tribal level.  Here are some:

  • The survival of the tribe, as a group, was more important than the survival of any individual.  However, the loss of any individual could put the tribe at risk.
  • The generation of surplus and innovation was highly uncertain.  Sharing reduced that uncertainty to manageable levels.
  • Sharing reduced internal friction that could put the tribe at risk.

Scalability

It's pretty clear that the societal drivers of tribal gifting economics and the mechanisms of enforcement didn't survive the transition to a global social system composed of billions of members.   Simply, the connections between any two individuals (outside of immediate familial relationships) are too abstract for these drivers and enforcement mechanisms to be relevant.   As a result, market based mechanisms for economic interaction have gained dominance.

However, the ongoing shift of the global market-based economy from a trade in rival goods (tangible items that invoke zero sum economics) to digital non-rival goods (items that can be copied at no expense or diminishment, endlessly) provides a window of opportunity.  It may be possible to revive gifting economics for non-rival goods to amazing beneficial effect.   Some ideas on how this could scale:

  • Automated reputation metrics that enhance social status based on contributions.
  • Mechanisms built using MMO gaming as a way to tie successful gifting to status improvement (leveling) or an ability to attract investment.
  • The creation of an inside/outside barrier that separates a gifting economy from the global economic mainstream.   Automated mutual interdependence (see my friend Bruce Sterling's absolutely brilliant story on this:  "Maneki Neko").

Latest on SNOW

Jean Snow - 08 Feb 10

Latest on SNOW

So what’s the latest on SNOW? I guess two new developments art that I added a dedicated Twitter feed, and also created a Facebook fan page. The Twitter feed is mostly just automated with new articles from the site — because some people actually prefer that over RSS feeds these days — but I do keep an eye on it, and will reply to questions and comments. The Facebook page is just another way of putting the site out there, and should be a good way of informing members of SNOW-related events as they happen.

Regular content updates have also continued over the past week, with a few new guest columns and my regular news items. Here’s a list of what you may have missed over the past few days.

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blissblog - 08 Feb 10

I Know It?s Over?

Kieron Gillen - 08 Feb 10